01 April 2022 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
ETH/BTC have been gaining momentum in recent months, thanks to the merging and associated bullish narratives. It’s being called a “triple halvening” by some and they predict a $10k token value this year. However, ETH hasn’t outperformed bitcoin in Q4. Although ETH/BTC are slightly below the “World War 3” lows, it is still well above the highs (nearly 20%) – a price many believe is achievable in the short term. This rally is likely to continue. It echoes the larger progression of BTC leading ETH which in turn leads alts.
This ETH bull thesis was built on the foundation of a safe environment. A wildcard from Ukraine, a shock inflation print, an unexpected regulatory headwind or the sudden realization that the Luna Foundation is the only one holding the market up could all be factors that could cause a problem in this trade. We are happy to cover all those risks at the moment.
Taxes on crypto assets will begin in the next financial year. In her Budget 2022 speech, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a 30% tax on income from virtual assets like bitcoin, Ethereum and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that there has been an extraordinary rise in these transactions, and it was imperative to establish a specific tax regime. A 1 percent TDS will apply to all digital assets. Gift taxes may also be applied under certain conditions. Investors will not be permitted to offset losses in crypto assets against each other. Mining infrastructure will also not be subject to a deduction for acquisition costs.
Investors and traders alike are feeling a bit of uncertainty after the FY close. USDT/INR fell dramatically yesterday as traders sold heavily. After USDT/INR dropped by around 7%, premiums in India were completely wiped out. This was due to various loss adjustments and profit bookings traders made before today’s new rules became effective.
The opportunity to gradually scale up into more risky assets at attractive prices is available due to the wider macroeconomic fear/disarray. Overall sentiment is not necessarily bearish but more cautious. Markets remain in a consolidation phase as traders are buying dips. This is not a bad thing given the macroeconomic uncertainty. It’s actually a sign that markets are maturing and long-term investors have confidence in this.
Technical Outlook
BITCOIN:
BITCOIN traded green for 8 consecutive sessions. The bulls broke the resistance of $45,500, making a weekly peak of $48,189. The asset saw a profit booking at higher levels, and prices dropped by almost 8.2% to $44,200. BTC currently tries to find support at its 200-day Moving Average ($44,000.) If it bounces below these levels, then the bulls can resume their uptrend. If the closing price falls below the 200-day Moving Average, it will cause further decline and prices could reach $42,500 or $40,000 levels.
ETH:
ETH traded in a range that formed a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern. After finally breaking out above the range, the support began to move upwards and formed a ‘Higher Top Higher Bottom” pattern. The prices rose almost 20% after the breakout and reached a weekly high of $3482. The asset is facing strong resistance at $3.415, and the bulls are having trouble maintaining and closing above this level. To continue rallying, ETH must close above $3,415. Then, prices will rise to $3650 to $3800.
BAT:
BAT traded in a range of $0.55 to $0.75. Finally, the asset broke out of its range and rallied nearly 25% to $0.936. BAT encountered multiple resistance at the $0.95 level and saw some profit booking. It will likely rise to $1.15-$1.3 once it closes above $0.95-1, and $0.75 will provide strong support.
Weekly Snapshot
USD ($)24 Mar 2231 Mar 22Previous WeekCurrent WeekCloseClose% ChangeHighLowHighLowBTC$43,960$45,3913.25%$44,131$40,944$48,087$43,706ETH$3,108$3,2825.59%$3,118$2,814$3,470$3,087MATIC$1.63$1.62-0.61%$1.63$1.45$1.75$1.57Cryptocurrency1w – % Vol. Change (Global)BitCoin (BTC)10.15%Ethereum (ETH)5.91%Polygon (MATIC)9.16%Resistance 2$53,000$3,800$1.95$1.15Resistance 1$48,300$3,415$1.75$0.95USDBTCETHMATICBATSupport 1$44,000$3,150$1.55$0.75Support 2$39,500$2,950$1.30$0.55
Market Updates
Bank of Japan (BOJ), has warned G7 countries that there is no common framework to regulate digital currencies. Haruhiko Kuroda (BOJ), the Bank of Japan governor, stated that the bank currently does not plan to launch a new digital currency.
*Sources of charts
https://cryptowat.ch
https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR
Disclaimer: This report should not be regarded as investment advice. It does not consider the financial situation or investment goals of investors. When deciding whether an investment is right for them, all investors should take into account these factors and consult with a professional advisor. This report was prepared by the Company using information that it has access to, as well as information from public sources that have not been independently verified. The Company makes no representations or warranties, either express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, correctness or completeness of the information, opinions or conclusions contained herein. This report is preliminary. The Company does not assume any obligation to revise or update the reports in response to new events or circumstances after the date of the report was made. Trading and Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are highly speculative investments that are subject to market risk. The Author’s analysis should be used only as information and should not be considered investment advice.
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