08 April 2022 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
The market is still cautiously treading water even though it’s only week into April. BTC is still volatile, moving between $44k-$48k in April. We have not seen any significant movement in either direction with the 128 day MA of $43.6k, and the 200 day MA of $48.3k still unbroken. BTC moved lower today to test the $45k mark, but we believe market participants will be cautious about being too bearish on BTC. We also know that the Luna Foundation Guard could repurchase BTC any day. BTC has fallen 4% in the last week, compared to ETH’s 0.4% decline. Altcoins like SOL, DOGE and NEAR are showing strong performances, rising 13%, 14% and 18%, respectively. If altcoins outperform BTC consistently for a few weeks it could signal a bull market.
This is a good time to continue stacking dips responsibly, especially considering that the macro backdrop remains positive in our view.
1) Inflation is causing the dollar to lose value.
2) Every day, crypto is adopted by countries and corporations. MicroStrategy just announced yesterday that it had acquired an additional 4,197 BTC. It currently holds 5.8bn BTC at current market valuations. The company’s market capital is 5.5bn.
3) While the March FOMC could have been a potentially dangerous inflection point, crypto managed to rally despite being projected by the Fed as hawkish. Powell’s remarks that the US economy was strong enough for monetary tightening policies may have helped to reduce risk-off sentiment.
4) The fears about WW3 seem to have been resuscitated from March, and unless there is a serious escalation in the Russia-Ukraine situation we should continue to be supported.
Bitcoin 2022 will begin today (6 April). We’ve heard some interesting rumors, including a possible update on the BTC bond in El Salvador, Jack Dorsey’s plans for a fiat BTC DEX and possibly Apple announcing support of BTC payments. Chris Zuehlke will be there, as well as Paul Kremsky.
The opportunity to gradually scale up into more risky assets at attractive prices is available due to the wider macroeconomic fear/disarray. Overall sentiment isn’t necessarily bearish but more cautious. Markets remain in a consolidation phase as traders are buying dips. This is not a bad thing given the macroeconomic uncertainty. It’s actually a sign that markets are maturing and long-term investors have confidence in this.
Technical Outlook
BITCOIN:
BITCOIN reached $48,189 after breaking the resistance of $45,500 for the longest time. The asset made a Spinning Top’ candle in an uptrend on a weekly basis. This indicates that bulls are not indecisive to maintain its juggernaut at the moment. Profit booking was also observed. Technically, BTC trades in a “Rising Channel” and prices must close above $48,300 to continue their rally. The asset will then rally to $50,000 to $52,500 levels once it achieves that. Strong support comes from $42,500 and $39500.
ETH:
ETH traded in an uptrend, and jumped almost 26% from $2832 to $3580 in two weeks. It reached a peak of $3,578. The bulls could not push prices higher than the resistance level at $3,600. However, the asset was faced with stiff resistance at its top and saw a 10% correction. ETH currently tries to find support at the 200-Day Moving Average. If the bulls bounce from here, we can expect them to continue the up movement. A break below the 200-day Moving Average could lead to further losses and the asset may need to test support at $3,000.
BAT:
BAT traded in a range of $0.55 to $0.75. Finally, the asset broke out of its range and rallied by almost 25% to $0.8. BAT encountered strong resistance at the psychological level $1. It then saw a sharp correction, and fell to $0.75. If it closes above $1, we can expect it will continue to surge up to $1.15-$1.3 while $0.75 will be as strong.
Weekly Snapshot
USD ($)31 Mar 2207 Apr 22Previous WeekCurrent WeekCloseClose% ChangeHighLowHighLowBTC$45,539$43,504-4.47%$48,022$43,706$47,313$43,146ETH$3,282$3,233-1.47%$3,470$3,087$3,574$3,159MATIC$1.62$1.51-6.79%$1.75$1.57$1.73$1.46Cryptocurrency1w – % Vol. Change (Global)BitCoin (BTC)7.01%Ethereum (ETH)21.94%Polygon (MATIC)-6.91%Resistance 2$52,500$3,600$2.05$1.15Resistance 1$48,300$3,350$1.75$1.00USDBTCETHMATICBATSupport 1$42,500$3,150$1.45$0.75Support 2$39,500$3,000$1.30$0.55
Market Updates
Robinhood, a crypto wallet, won’t support Ethereum-based services such as non-fungible tokens or ERC-20 tokens. However, Vitalik Buterin quietly donated $5M ETH in aid of Ukraine.
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR
Disclaimer: This report should not be regarded as investment advice. It does not consider the financial situation or investment goals of investors. When deciding whether an investment is right for them, all investors should take into account these factors and consult with a professional advisor. This report was prepared by the Company using information that it has access to, as well as information from public sources that have not been independently verified. The Company makes no representations or warranties, either express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, correctness or completeness of the information, opinions or conclusions contained herein. This report is preliminary. The Company does not assume any obligation to revise or update the reports in response to new events or circumstances after the date of the report was made. Trading and Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are highly speculative investments that are subject to market risk. The Author’s analysis should be used only as information and should not be considered investment advice.
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